24 Nov

Rockets reportedly aren’t interested in Giannis Antetokounmpo trade, so what exactly is their long-term plan?

In June, the Houston Rockets made a trade that appeared, at least in theory, to be a prelude to a second, bigger one. When the Brooklyn Nets sent Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks, they also looped in the Rockets and swapped control over a handful of future draft picks they owned originally belonging to the Phoenix Suns (and one from either the Nets or Dallas Mavericks) for control of their own picks back in 2025 and 2026. Those Nets picks, at least in the moment, looked like some of the most valuable draft assets in basketball.

But the Rockets, based on reporting at the time, held a specific interest in those Suns picks as a sort of short against Phoenix’s future. The Suns were coming off a disappointing first-round sweep and held limited flexibility to improve because they had traded most of their draft picks and were above the second apron. As ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported at the time, the Rockets wanted to be in a position to give Phoenix its own draft picks back and, with them, the ability to tank and rebuild had they ever decided to trade Kevin Durant or Devin Booker. Phoenix has thus far resisted all overtures, but as recently as Sunday, Marc Stein called Durant Houston’s “dream target.” While Stein also reported a widespread belief around the league that the Rockets want to wait until the offseason to make a big trade, even having a dream target suggests a willingness to jump should the right star become available.

And that made The Athletic’s Kelly Iko’s reporting on Wednesday so confusing. While he’s not as versatile as Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, at least on paper, feels like much more of a dream target for a team ready to swing a blockbuster than Durant is. Antetokounmpo is more than six years younger than Durant and has beaten him in MVP voting a staggering eight years in a row. Virtually every metric tells us that Antetokounmpo is the superior player today. Last season, for instance, Antetokounmpo more than doubled Durant up in terms of BPM (9.0 to 4.0), came close in VORP (7.2 to 4.3) and Win Shares per 48 minutes (.246 to .129). Antetokounmpo has had a few minor injuries but has never missed 20 games in a season. Durant has done so in four of the past five seasons.

Yet, according to Iko, the Rockets are not interested in breaking up their young core to land Antetokounmpo in a trade should the flailing Bucks ever decide to move him. It’s a confusing stance on the surface because, well, who wouldn’t want Giannis? He has a real case for the title “Best player in the NBA, not named Nikola Jokic.” He’s a tricky fit on certain rosters, sure, but he’s good enough to warrant further changes. If your team doesn’t make sense for a two-time MVP in his prime, your team is the problem, not him. So what’s happening here?

Let’s race through the simplest answers here. This might just be posturing. It’s easier to trade for a player when their current team doesn’t think you’re desperate. Ask the Los Angeles Clippers what happens when you really are desperate to land a specific player. It’s also possible that there isn’t an organizational consensus. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said as much in regards to the Durant interest in July during an appearance on the Lowe Post podcast. It’s possible, for instance, that Durant is a favored target of head coach Ime Udoka, who was an assistant in Brooklyn when Durant was a Net and reportedly the 2014 MVP’s preferred choice to replace Steve Nash in 2022. But the organization needs alignment for a trade of this magnitude to take place. If that’s not there, it’s hard to imagine Houston breaking the bank for anyone.

But the logical answer here has less to do with Antetokounmpo, Durant, Booker or any player on another team’s roster and more to do with what Houston already has. The Rockets, in short, don’t quite know what they have yet.

It’s still early, but the 2024-25 Rockets look like a playoff team. They are 11-5 with a plus-8.5 net rating. Ironically, a missed out of bounds call on Antetokounmpo is the only thing keeping them out of a three-way tie with the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder for the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed. And they’ve done this, amazingly, without an obvious All-Star-caliber player. Alperen Sengun made a real run at a selection a year ago, but his scoring numbers have declined meaningfully. Nobody on the roster is averaging 20 points. Meanwhile, five of the seven players that represent the core of this year’s rotation are 23 or younger. That doesn’t include No. 3 overall pick Reed Sheppard or the promising 20-year-old Cam Whitmore. The Rockets have so much talent right now that they can’t even find playing time for everyone.

That’s a good problem to have, but it’s a problem nonetheless, and one that impacts the Rockets on several levels. On a practical level, it’s impossible to pay everyone. Houston has managed its finances very well. Next summer, for example, both Jalen Green and Sengun are set to kick off expensive new rookie deals. The Rockets are prepared for that, though, because they can clear almost $53 million off of their books just by declining Fred VanVleet’s team option and waiving the non-guaranteed Jock Landale. A rookie extension for Amen Thompson would kick in right as Dillon Brooks’ four-year deal expires. One for Sheppard would kick in right as Green’s rookie extension ends. Rafael Stone is one of the best cap strategists in basketball. That doesn’t make the aprons any more forgiving.

This informs the logic of a consolidation trade as much as the talent upgrade would. Superstar salaries are capped through max contracts. Antetokounmpo, for instance, is making less this season than Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez combined. Any team would rather have Antetokounmpo, but paying multiple high-level players is almost always going to be more expensive than paying one great one. Those sub-star level players create a death-through-depth scenario where a team has no great players and is capped with expensive good ones.

The Rockets have years before that would become a real problem, but in a perfect world, they’d likely prefer to sidestep it entirely. One of the benefits of playing all of this youth right now, before landing a big-name veteran, is that it gives those young players to create an organic hierarchy. If there’s a budding star in the mix here, he has room to prove it. Right now, the Rockets are still figuring out which of these young players they need to prioritize and, perhaps just as importantly, which ones make sense next to whichever stars they might one day target.

That is no guarantee that they will ever choose to do so. The Rockets are playing so well right now that there are certain scenarios in which they decide to simply let it ride with this group, use those Suns picks to add cheap upside down the line and call it a day. One of the benefits of winning this much with such a young team is that it makes such a scenario plausible. One day, the Rockets may determine that they don’t have a superstar in this group and need to trade for one. Today? Their record alone creates more leverage than media posturing ever could. They don’t have to trade for Durant or Antetokounmpo or anyone else right now. They can afford to be patient and choosy, a luxury they didn’t have at the bottom of the standings.

If Antetokounmpo did become available, it would be irresponsible of the Rockets not to at least check in. The wording of Iko’s reporting is that Houston isn’t interested in breaking up its young core for Antetokounmpo, not that it isn’t interested in trading for him at all. Right now, the Rockets are figuring out who exactly their young core is, and given how much incumbent talent, youth and draft capital there is here, it’s entirely plausible that the Rockets could construct a future star trade that doesn’t cost them everything they’ve already built. That, in all likelihood, is the goal here: to build on what’s happening now, not to tear it down for the first big name that hits the market.

Looking for more NBA insight from CBS Sports? Bill Reiter, John Gonzalez and more experts break down the league daily on the Beyond the Arc podcast.

24 Nov

 76ers approach rock bottom, Celtics make case for No. 1, Lakers and Knicks streaking

Let’s say you’ve got a great Christopher Walken impression. You do it once during a work Zoom meeting, get a good laugh. Do it a couple times at a holiday party — hey, all in fun. But if you break that thing out too often, suddenly you’ve gone past a cool little quirk and you’ve full-on become “the guy with the Christopher Walken impression.” Next time you’re at a function, you’ve got 12 different people dragging you around asking you to do it for their friends. There’s just no going back.

The same is true for losing. Some is expected and tolerable but, if you consider yourself a contender, you have to be careful how much you allow it to creep in. Otherwise, sooner or later, you just become a loser.

The Philadelphia 76ers are going through this battle right now. As they’ve waited for health and a return to form for their stars, they find themselves at 2-12 — the WORST record in the NBA — and land in the penultimate spot in this week’s Power Rankings. How far is too far gone? The Sixers are on perilous, shaky ground, particularly with the news that Paul George re-injured the same leg he hurt in the preseason. On paper, should they be at the bottom of the NBA ledger? Of course not. But here they are, and things have to turn around fast.

Speaking of losing, the Cleveland Cavaliers finally got a taste of what that feels like, dropping their first game of the season to the Boston Celtics after tying for the second-best start in NBA history. Our memory isn’t that short, however, so they maintain their No. 1 ranking despite the loss. But Boston certainly sent a message, and is breathing down Cleveland’s neck for the top spot.

Enough about losing — how about some winners? The Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks find themselves just outside the top five after winning streaks of six and four games, respectively. They’re right behind the Houston Rockets, who have been one of the most impressive and surprising (OK, not to Rockets fans who absolutely lambasted me for ranking them 12th in the West in the preseason Power Rankings) teams in the NBA.

24 Nov

Mavericks star out at least one week with wrist sprain, per report

Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic will miss at least one week with a right wrist sprain, according to Shams Charania. Doncic was sporting a wrap on his wrist during his press conference following the team’s last game, a win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday.

Asked what happened with his wrist, Doncic said, “I don’t know, honestly. Started feeling it in the first quarter.” He added that it was “nothing serious.” Despite his claims, the team’s medical staff decided that he needed to give his wrist some time to heal.

This has been a frustrating season for Doncic and the Mavericks, who are coming off a trip to the NBA Finals. They’re just 8-7, which has them in 11th place in the crowded Western Conference, and while Doncic has put up his usual gaudy numbers — 28.1 points, 7.8 rebounds and 7.6 assists — he has not looked great in the process. He’s shooting just 43.5% from the field overall, which is his worst mark since his rookie season, and 32.4% from behind the arc, which is his worst since his sophomore campaign.

Perhaps the clearest sign of Doncic’s struggles this season is that he has not been a free throw machine. In the last three seasons, he finished third, fourth and sixth in the league, respectively, in free throw attempts per game. This season, he’s 17th at a career-low 6.6. Meanwhile, his free throw rate — the number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt — is down to .290. His previous career low was .349.

The Mavericks will be back on the court again, without Doncic, against the Denver Nuggets on Friday. They’ll then head to the East Coast to take on the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks before returning home to host the New York Knicks next Wednesday. Per Charania, Doncic will not take part in any of those games.

That’s not the toughest stretch ever, but it’s also not the easiest, especially with three of the four games coming on the road. Even though Doncic has not been at his best thus far, the team has still been markedly better when he plays. They have a plus-8.3 net rating with Doncic on the court and a plus-2.4 net rating when he sits.